A Bayesian Analysis of Technological Intelligence in Land and Oceans
A Bayesian Analysis of Technological Intelligence in Land and Oceans
Published on March 2, 2023
Manasvi Lingam, Amedeo Balbi, and Swadesh M. Mahajan
Manasvi Lingam, Amedeo Balbi, and Swadesh M. Mahajan
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Current research indicates that (sub)surface ocean worlds essentially devoid of subaerial landmasses (e.g., continents) are common in the Milky Way and that these worlds could host habitable conditions, thence raising the possibility that life and technological intelligence (TI) may arise in such aquatic settings. It is known, however, that TI on Earth (i.e., humans) arose on land. Motivated by these considerations, we present a Bayesian framework to assess the prospects for the emergence of TIs in land- and ocean-based habitats (LBHs and OBHs). If all factors are equally conducive for TIs to arise in LBHs and OBHs, we demonstrate that the evolution of TIs in LBHs (which includes humans) might have very low odds of roughly 1 in 103 to 1 in 104, thus outwardly contradicting the Copernican principle. Hence, we elucidate three avenues whereby the Copernican principle can be preserved: (i) the emergence rate of TIs is much lower in OBHs, (ii) the habitability interval for TIs is much shorter in OBHs, and (iii) only a small fraction of worlds with OBHs comprise appropriate conditions for effectuating TIs. We also briefly discuss methods for empirically falsifying our predictions and comment on the feasibility of supporting TIs in aerial environments.
Current research indicates that (sub)surface ocean worlds essentially devoid of subaerial landmasses (e.g., continents) are common in the Milky Way and that these worlds could host habitable conditions, thence raising the possibility that life and technological intelligence (TI) may arise in such aquatic settings. It is known, however, that TI on Earth (i.e., humans) arose on land. Motivated by these considerations, we present a Bayesian framework to assess the prospects for the emergence of TIs in land- and ocean-based habitats (LBHs and OBHs). If all factors are equally conducive for TIs to arise in LBHs and OBHs, we demonstrate that the evolution of TIs in LBHs (which includes humans) might have very low odds of roughly 1 in 103 to 1 in 104, thus outwardly contradicting the Copernican principle. Hence, we elucidate three avenues whereby the Copernican principle can be preserved: (i) the emergence rate of TIs is much lower in OBHs, (ii) the habitability interval for TIs is much shorter in OBHs, and (iii) only a small fraction of worlds with OBHs comprise appropriate conditions for effectuating TIs. We also briefly discuss methods for empirically falsifying our predictions and comment on the feasibility of supporting TIs in aerial environments.
Research Team
American Astronomical Society
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This website (uapcaucus.com) is an independent community-driven platform and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or representative of any official government entity, including the UAP Caucus within the House of Representatives, or any other official body. The views, frameworks, and content expressed on this site are those of the contributors and do not reflect the official stance or endorsement of any governmental organization.
This website (uapcaucus.com) is an independent community-driven platform and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or representative of any official government entity, including the UAP Caucus within the House of Representatives, or any other official body. The views, frameworks, and content expressed on this site are those of the contributors and do not reflect the official stance or endorsement of any governmental organization.